The forecast comes long before hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and projections will improve as summer approaches. Of course, predicting how terrible a hurricane season can be with 100 percent certainty is impossible, and these reports do change over time, but that doesn't mean Florida shouldn't be prepared for the worst.
"Our initial seasonal forecast issued in April underestimated activity in 2017 by a large margin, due in part to El Nino predictions by many statistical and dynamical models that did not come to fruition".
Phil Klotzbach presented his teams forecast for 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity at the National Tropical Weather Conference today.
As many as 14 named storms have been predicted, seven of which are expected to be just as monstrous as Harvey, Irma and Maria from previous year. However it is too early to predict where or how hot sea surface temperatures may get, hence uncertainty remains the order of the day.
"The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño this summer/fall". Median seasons see about 60 named storm days, 21 hurricane days and four major hurricane days.More news: Record-setting direct listing makes Spotify a $30 billion firm
Their forecast is for a total of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which is slightly above the long-term average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
He goes on to say, "It can be a quiet season, until one storm hits your area. This year may not be quite as active, but still probably normal to slightly above normal", AccuWeather forecaster Dan Kottlowski said.
Similar to past year, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal across most of the basin and normal to above normal over the main developmental region, where more than 85 percent of all tropical storms form, according to AccuWeather.
The team believes three hurricanes will be strong enough to become major hurricanes - Category 3 and above - and there is a 63 percent chance a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast.
For those still grappling with the devastation of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria previous year, the 2018 hurricane season may not offer a reprieve.