With trade war, U.S. and China stumble into the Thucydides Trap: Kemp

Trump US lost trade war with China years ago

Trump's Tariffs Against China Are Sparking Fears of a Trade War. Here's Why You Should Care

Many of China's largest exports to the U.S. have yet to be hit-telephones, laptops, and modems & routers together made up around $100 billion of trade revenue for China in 2017, for example.

"Inward-looking policies, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty were seen as the main downside risks", Agah said as an escalating trade war by world's two largest economies - the United States and China - sent global investors scurrying for cover.

"If the U.S. side disregards opposition from China and the global community and insists on carrying out unilateralism and trade protectionism, the Chinese side will take them on until the end at any cost", the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its website.

Approximately one-third of USA soybeans are exported to China, which makes the market especially susceptible to trade disputes. China has promised to respond in kind, but it would be unable to match that amount since it imported only $130 billion of USA goods past year. He's also asked for a $100 billion reduction in the US trade deficit with China, about a third of the total gap recorded previous year.

But Chinese tariffs aren't the only ones that will hurt USA companies - Trump's own import taxes could also be a self-inflicted wound. China wasted no time in firing back with 25-percent tariffs on imports of 106 USA products, including soybeans, automobiles, chemicals, and aircraft.

That is doubly true in a potential trade war with China, for several reasons. "Great future for both countries!"

"In 2016, Limestone County produced the most soybeans in Alabama with 2.2 million bushels", according to the Alabama Farmers Federation.

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"I'm not saying there's not going to be any pain", he told WABC radio in NY, but "we're going to be much stronger for it". We make them worse off if we stand between them and say "thou shalt not".

Among sectors most affected by a trade war could be technology, particularly chipmakers. Chinese and USA officials haven't held talks "for a period of time" on any economic or trade issues, Gao said.

US manufacturing giants that sell products in China, such as Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, General Motors and Intel, are also expected to take a hit if China follows through on its threats. Both sides have been careful to leave time for further negotiations in an effort to prevent the tariffs from taking effect. Already in the crosshairs of Chinese retaliation are United States exports of $6 billion in motor vehicles and $16 billion worth of civilian aircraft.

At worst, he estimated, the American actions could shave one-tenth of a percentage point off China's economic growth - hardly enough to force a drastic reversal of policies, given the enormous benefits that Chinese leaders see in the state-heavy economic model they have relied on in recent decades.

However, he said the White House is willing to negotiate and is in regular contact with Chinese officials.

"They are hitting soybeans, wheat, corn and cotton - so all the agricultural products - and this is in addition to what they announced already on pork and sorghum", said Wendong Zhang, assistant professor of economics at Iowa State University.

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